Determinants of multimorbidity in older adults in Iran: a cross-sectional study using latent class analysis on the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity, defined as the presence of two or more long-term health conditions in an individual, is one of the most significant challenges facing health systems worldwide. This study aimed to identify determinants of classes of multimorbidity among older adults in Iran. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a cross-sectional sample of older adults (aged ≥ 60 years) from the second stage of the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program in southern Iran, latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify patterns of multimorbidity. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to investigate factors associated with each multimorbidity class, including age, gender, education, household income, physical activity, smoking status, and polypharmacy. RESULTS: In 2,426 study participants (mean age 69 years, 52% female), the overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 80.2%. Among those with multimorbidity, 3 latent classes were identified. These comprised: class 1, individuals with a low burden of multisystem disease (56.9%); class 2, individuals with predominantly cardiovascular-metabolic disorders (25.8%) and class 3, individuals with predominantly cognitive and metabolic disorders (17.1%). Compared with men, women were more likely to belong to class 2 (odds ratio [OR] 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-2.54) and class 3 (OR 4.52, 95% CI 3.22-6.35). Polypharmacy was associated with membership class 2 (OR 3.52, 95% CI: 2.65-4.68) and class 3 (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.28-2.63). Smoking was associated with membership in class 3 (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.01-2.08). Individuals with higher education levels (59%) and higher levels of physical activity (39%) were less likely to belong to class 3 (OR 0.41; 95% CI: 0.28-0.62) and to class 2 (OR 0.61; 95% CI: 0.38-0.97), respectively. Those at older age were less likely to belong to class 2 (OR 0.95). DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: A large proportion of older adults in Iran have multimorbidity. Female sex, polypharmacy, sedentary lifestyle, and poor education levels were associated with cardiovascular-metabolic multimorbidity and cognitive and metabolic multimorbidity. A greater understanding of the determinants of multimorbidity may lead to strategies to prevent its development.

The association between continuous metabolic syndrome score and its components with electrocardiographic abnormalities in community-dwelling older adults: the Bushehr elderly health (BEH) program.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) known as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) has developed into a major source of health issue, especially for the elderly. In the present study, we investigated the association between continuous MetS (cMetS) score and its components with electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities in the community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: This cross-sectional study is derived from the second phase of BEH cohort study which is conducted on individuals aged over 60 years old. Standard 12-lead ECGs were recorded and coded by qualified physicians and continuous values of metabolic syndrome risk scores (cMetS) were measured. Data regarding socio-demographic, medical history, and lifestyle variables were collected by trained interviewers. The multinomial regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between cMetS and its components with ECG abnormalities in the included participants. RESULTS: 2426 individuals (mean age ± standard deviation: 69.30 ± 6.33 years) were included in the final analysis. Overall, 22.5% of the participants showed ECG abnormalities. Among these, 8.0% (n = 139) of participants had minor and 14.6% (n = 354) had major ECG abnormalities. In the final models, cMetS (OR = 1.04), mean arterial pressure (MAP((OR = 1.01), and higher fasting blood glucose (FBG) (OR = 1.01) increased the risk of ECG abnormalities (p < 0.05). Also, cMetS (OR = 1.05) and MAP (OR = 1.02) were associated with an increased risk of major ECG abnormalities (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: MetS and MAP were significantly associated with ECG abnormalities. The results of the present study suggest that ECG screening in the older population with MetS could potentially help to detect those at the higher risk of CVDs.

Unveiling an Association between Waterpipe Smoking and Bladder Cancer Risk: A Multicenter Case-Control Study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist for the association between bladder cancers and waterpipe smoking, an emerging global public health concern. METHODS: We used the IROPICAN database in Iran and used multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for cigarette smoking, opium use, and other confounding factors. In addition, we studied the association between exclusive waterpipe smoking and bladder cancer. RESULTS: We analyzed 717 cases and 3,477 controls and a subset of 215 patients and 2,145 controls who did not use opium or cigarettes. Although the OR adjusted for opium, cigarettes, and other tobacco products was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-1.20], we observed a statistically significant elevated risk in exclusive waterpipe smokers (OR = 1.78; 95% CI, 1.16-2.72) compared with non-users of opium or any tobacco. Associations were strongest for smoking more than two heads/day (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.21-4.18) and for initiating waterpipe smoking at an age less than 20 (OR = 2.73; 95% CI, 1.11-6.72). The OR for urothelial bladder cancer was higher in ex-smokers (OR = 2.35; 95% CI, 1.24-4.42) than in current smokers (OR = 1.52; 95% CI, 0.72-3.15). All observed associations were consistently higher for urothelial histology. CONCLUSIONS: Waterpipe smoking may be associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer, notably among individuals who are not exposed to cigarette smoking and opium. IMPACT: The study provides compelling evidence that waterpipe smoking is a confirmed human carcinogen, demanding action from policymakers. See related In the Spotlight, p. 461.

Determinants of waterpipe smoking in Iranian adults: results from the IROPICAN study.

Introduction: Waterpipe smoking has become increasingly popular in Western countries, particularly among young individuals. This study aims to identify the factors influencing waterpipe smoking by focusing on consumption patterns. Methods: We utilized data from a multicenter case-control study (IROPICAN) conducted in Iran. Multivariate logistic regression estimated the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals as a measure of association between waterpipe smoking and different factors. Results: Among 3,477 subjects were included, 11.8% were waterpipe smokers. Most of <50 years old smokers were occasional (80%), while daily smokers were often >50 years (85%). Around 59% of occasional users started it before 30 years old. Low education, low SES, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, secondhand smoke exposure, and opium use were associated with waterpipe smoking. Stratified analysis by frequency pattern showed an association between occasional smoking with age 0.97 (0.96-0.98), university degree 0.36 (0.17-0.76), urban dwellers 1.40 (1.06-1.86) and between high SES and daily smoking 0.34 (0.17-0.69). Conclusion: Our results offer valuable information to policymakers for developing waterpipe smoking control measures. The occasional waterpipe smoking results may be generalized to the younger people in Western countries.

Opium use and risk of colorectal cancer: a multi-center case-referent study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Opium use has been associated with an increased risk of cancers of the lung, oesophagus, and pancreas, and it was recently classified by the International Agency for Cancer Research as carcinogenic to humans. It is not clear whether opium also increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of our study was to assess the association between various metrics of opium use and the risk of CRC. METHODS: This case-referent study from seven provinces in Iran comprised 848 CRC cases and 3215 referents. Data on opium use (duration, amount, frequency) and potential confounders were collected by trained interviewers. Multivariable unconditional logistic regression models were used to measure odds ratios (OR) adjusted for age, gender, province, marital status, family history of CRC-linked cancers, consumption of red meat, fruits and vegetables, body shape, occupational physical activity, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Regular opium consumption was not associated with the risk of CRC (OR 0.9, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.7, 1.2) compared to subjects who never used opium. However, frequent opium use more than twice a day was associated with an increased risk of CRC compared to non-users of opium (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1, 3.8; p for quadratic trend 0.008). CONCLUSION: There seems to be no overall association between opium use and CRC, but the risk of CRC might be increased among persons who use opium many times a day.

The association of body composition and fat distribution with dysmobility syndrome in community-dwelling older adults: Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Dysmobility Syndrome (DS) is characterized as an accumulation of clinical risk factors for functional disability, such as osteoporosis, sarcopenia, and obesity. Neurological disorders that affect the motor and sensory systems can also contribute to the condition, resulting in gait and muscle strength disturbances, as well as a history of falls and fractures. The study aimed to determine the association between fat distribution in different body areas and the odds of older adults developing DS, as there is still uncertainty about the accumulation of fat in which area is most closely linked to the condition. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted according to the data from the second phase of the Bushehr Elderly Health Cohort (BEH). Dysmobility Syndrome was defined based on the co-occurrence of at least three outcomes of its criteria. Body composition was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and anthropometric studies. For evaluating the relationship, multivariate logistic regression and adjusted univariate linear regression were used. RESULTS: Of 2,359 who were recruited in the study, 1,277 participants (54.13%) had DS. According to the final logistic regression model in the limb region, FM and FM to FFM ratios were significantly associated with DS [OR (95%CI) = 1.04 (1.02 to 1.05), and 3.42 (1.95 to 5.99), respectively]. Also, In the trunk region, the FM and FM to FFM ratio were significantly related to the odds of DS, although this relationship was weaker than in the limbs region [OR (95%CI) = 1.02 (1.00 to 1.03), and 2.45 (1.36 to 4.39), respectively]. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that a higher regional and whole-body amount of fat mass rather than fat-free mass is closely linked to an increased risk of DS, particularly in the elderly population. Notably, higher fat mass in the limbs (especially in the legs) is associated with greater odds of DS, while a higher android-to-gynoid fat mass ratio is associated with lower DS risk. Screening fat mass distribution in older individuals can be a valuable strategy for promptly diagnosing DS, implementing interventions to prevent disabilities, and improving their quality of life.

Association between depression and blood pressure in community-dwelling older adults: focus on Bushehr elderly health (BEH) program.

INTRODUCTION: Depression and increased blood pressure are significant burdens in elderly care. This study was conducted to discover the association between hypertension (HTN) and depression based on data obtained from the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program in a large population of Iranian elderly in Bushehr, southern Iran. METHODS: This study was carried out based on data obtained from the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program in a large population of Iranian elderly in Bushehr, a southern city in Iran. 2419 old adults were included in the study through multi-stage random sampling. Depression was assessed using Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and blood pressure was measured using a standard mercury sphygmomanometer. Statistical analysis was conducted via chai-square, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and univariate and multivariate linear regression tests. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 69.95 ± 6.95 years. The prevalence of depression was 23.8%. Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) decreased with increasing PHQ score (B=-0.001; 95%CI: -0.00 to -0.00, P-value = 0.011). In the final model adjusted for confounding variables, no significant association was found between depression score and DBP (B=-0.00; 95%CI: -0.00 to 0.00, P = 0.13). Conversely, in the final model, which included the confounding variable, SBP was significantly associated with depression. It was deduced that a variable acted as a negative confounder in this association; in a way that with increased depression score, SBP significantly decreased (B=-0.00; 95% CI: -0.00 to -0.00, P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Depression and its related medications could be significantly associated with controlled SBP. Health practitioners in primary health care centers must monitor the elderly inflicted with HTN for early symptoms of depression to help maintain blood pressure levels using medicinal and non-medicinal interventions.

Relationship Between Neck Circumference and Risk Factors of Metabolic Syndrome in a Bushehr Elderly Health Study.

Metabolic syndrome includes a set of metabolic disorders such as obesity, high blood pressure, hypertriglyceridemia, lipid disorders, and glucose intolerance. In this cross-sectional (descriptive-analytical) study, 2,426 people were selected from the 60 years old and above population of Bushehr for a second-phase investigation of the relationship between neck circumference (NC) and cardiometabolic risk factors in the elderly people. The data (mean and standard deviation) were analyzed using STATA MP Version 15 software. The results of the study showed that the average age of all elderly participants in the study was 69.34 ± 6.39 years. The mean and standard deviation of the NC index in men, women, and all participants were 39.31 ± 2.89, 34.86 ± 2.84, and 37.00 ± 3.62, respectively. The mean and standard deviation of most laboratory indicators (triglyceride [TG], total cholesterol [TC], low-density lipoprotein [LDL], high-density lipoprotein [HDL]) were significantly higher in women, and there was no significant difference in fasting blood glucose (FBG) between men and women. NC index in the total population was significantly associated with all risk factors of metabolic syndrome (body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure) and laboratory indicators (FBG, TG, TC, LDLC, and HDL). The present study shows that the NC index can be a good predictor for the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome and visceral adipose tissue in the elderly.

Association of age-related declined renal function and osteoporosis based on trabecular bone score in Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program.

PURPOSE: Osteoporosis is a systemic disease characterized by decreased bone strength and an increased risk of fracture in old age. Age and pathologic renal failure are independent risk factors for osteoporosis. However, it is not determined whether age-related decreased renal function, in the context of senescence, can be considered as an independent risk factor for osteoporosis. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate the effect of senescence-induced renal failure on bone quality and trabecular bone score. METHODS: This study used a cross-sectional design and was carried out based on data collected during the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program, Phase II. A total of 2,125 elderly participants aged over 60 years old entered the study after meeting the inclusion criteria and providing informed consent. They underwent examinations for weight, height, abdominal and hip circumference, as well as blood pressure measurement. All participants also underwent DXA to assess bone mass density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS) was calculated using the DXA apparatus software output. Univariate and adjusted multivariate linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations. RESULTS: In the univariate linear regression analysis, there was a direct correlation between age-related renal failure and TBS (ß = 0.038, p < 0.0001), neck of femur BMD (ß = 0.047, p < 0.0001), and lumbar BMD (ß = 0.055, p < 0.0001). However, after adjusting for BMI, age, sex, smoking, and physical activity, no significant association was observed for these variables. CONCLUSION: It is hypothesized that age-related renal failure cannot be considered as an independent risk factor for osteoporosis in elderly individuals aged over 60 years old.

Dietary Choline and Betaine Intake and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in an Iranian Population.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing in low- and middle-income countries, likely due to changing lifestyle habits, including diet. We aimed to investigate the relationship between dietary betaine, choline, and choline-containing compounds and CRC risk. METHODS: We analyzed data from a case-control study, including 865 CRC cases and 3206 controls from Iran. Detailed information was collected by trained interviewers using validated questionnaires. The intake of free choline, phosphocholine (Pcho), glycerophosphocholine (GPC), phosphatidylcholine (PtdCho), and sphingomyelin (SM), as well as of betaine was estimated from food frequency questionnaires and categorized into quartiles. The odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of CRC for choline and betaine quartiles were calculated using multivariate logistic regression by adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: We observed excess risk of CRC in the highest versus lowest intake of total choline (OR = 1.23, 95% CI 1.13, 1.33), GPC (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.00, 1.27), and SM (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.01, 1.28). The intake of betaine exerted an inverse association with CRC risk (OR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.83, 0.99). There was no association between free choline, Pcho, PtdCho, and CRC. Analyses stratified by gender showed an elevated OR of CRC in men for SM intake OR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.03, 1.40) and a significantly decreased CRC risk in women for betaine intake (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.73, 0.97). CONCLUSION: Dietary modifications leading to an increase in betaine sources and managing the use of animal products as references for SM or other choline types might contribute to decreasing the risk of CRC.

Applications of different machine learning approaches in prediction of breast cancer diagnosis delay.

Background: The increasing rate of breast cancer (BC) incidence and mortality in Iran has turned this disease into a challenge. A delay in diagnosis leads to more advanced stages of BC and a lower chance of survival, which makes this cancer even more fatal. Objectives: The present study was aimed at identifying the predicting factors for delayed BC diagnosis in women in Iran. Methods: In this study, four machine learning methods, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), neural networks (NNs), and logistic regression (LR), were applied to analyze the data of 630 women with confirmed BC. Also, different statistical methods, including chi-square, p-value, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), were utilized in different steps of the survey. Results: Thirty percent of patients had a delayed BC diagnosis. Of all the patients with delayed diagnoses, 88.5% were married, 72.1% had an urban residency, and 84.8% had health insurance. The top three important factors in the RF model were urban residency (12.04), breast disease history (11.58), and other comorbidities (10.72). In the XGBoost, urban residency (17.54), having other comorbidities (17.14), and age at first childbirth (>30) (13.13) were the top factors; in the LR model, having other comorbidities (49.41), older age at first childbirth (82.57), and being nulliparous (44.19) were the top factors. Finally, in the NN, it was found that being married (50.05), having a marriage age above 30 (18.03), and having other breast disease history (15.83) were the main predicting factors for a delayed BC diagnosis. Conclusion: Machine learning techniques suggest that women with an urban residency who got married or had their first child at an age older than 30 and those without children are at a higher risk of diagnosis delay. It is necessary to educate them about BC risk factors, symptoms, and self-breast examination to shorten the delay in diagnosis.

Geographic distribution and time trends of water-pipe use among Iranian youth and teenage students: A meta-analysis and systematic review.

Water-pipe tobacco smoking is harmful to health, yet its rate of prevalence remains uncertain. Recent evidence has shown that the prevalence of water-pipe smoking among students is higher than in the general population. In this study, a systematic review of related literature on water-pipe use was conducted, and for this purpose, 76 articles were examined in the study. In this vein, geographic distribution and time trends of water-pipe consumption in Iran were considered. The results of this study showed that lifetime, last-year, and last-month prevalence of water-pipe smoking use among Iranian students were 28.78 (25.07-32.49), 20.84 (16.01-25.66), and 16.36 (11.86-20.85), respectively. The results also showed a wide variation by the region and sex in Iran. This study has shown the importance of addressing public prevention and alerting programs in schools and universities.

Opium use and risk of lung cancer: A multicenter case-control study in Iran.

Opium use was recently classified as a human carcinogen for lung cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We conducted a large, multicenter case-control study evaluating the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. We recruited 627 cases and 3477 controls from May 2017 to July 2020. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and measured the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. The ORs were adjusted for the residential place, age, gender, socioeconomic status, cigarettes, and water pipe smoking. We found a 3.6-fold risk of lung cancer for regular opium users compared to never users (95% CI: 2.9, 4.6). There was a strong dose-response association between a cumulative count of opium use and lung cancer risk. The OR for regular opium use was higher for small cell carcinoma than in other histology (8.3, 95% CI: 4.8, 14.4). The OR of developing lung cancer among opium users was higher in females (7.4, 95% CI: 3.8, 14.5) than in males (3.3, 95% CI: 2.6, 4.2). The OR for users of both opium and tobacco was 13.4 (95% CI: 10.2, 17.7) compared to nonusers of anything. The risk of developing lung cancer is higher in regular opium users, and these results strengthen the conclusions on the carcinogenicity of opium. The association is stronger for small cell carcinoma cases than in other histology.

Opium Use and the Risk of Liver Cancer: A Case-Control Study.

Limited evidence is available to acknowledge the association between opium use and liver cancer. In a case-control study, we recruited 117 cases of primary liver cancer (PLC) and 234 age and sex-matched neighborhood controls from 2016 to 2018. We calculated odds ratios (OR) for opium use and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), using conditional logistic regressions. Compared with non-users the adjusted OR (AOR, 95% CI) for opium use was 6.5 (95% CI, 2.87-13.44). Compared with people who had no history of use, a strong dose-response effect of opium use was observed by amount of use (AOR, 10.70; 95% CI, 3.92-28.70). Cumulative use of opium also indicated that using over 30 gr-year could increase the PLC risk dramatically (AOR, 11.0; 95% CI, 3.83-31.58). Those who used opium for more than 21 years were highly at risk of PLC (AOR, 11.66; 95% CI, 4.43-30.67). The observed associations were significant even among never tobacco smokers (including cigarette and water-pipe smoking). PREVENTION RELEVANCE: The results of this study indicate that opium use dramatically increased the risk of liver cancer. Because opioids are increasing for medical and non-medical use globally; accordingly, severe health consequences such as liver cancer have to be investigated widely.

Clinical Breast Cancer Registry of IR. Iran (CBCR-IR): Study Protocol and First Results.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC), as a significant global health problem, is the most common cancer in women. Despite the importance of clinical cancer registries in improving the quality of cancer care and cancer research, there are few reports on them from low- and middle-income countries. We established a multicenter clinical breast cancer registry in Iran (CBCR-IR) to collect data on BC cases, the pattern of care, and the quality-of-care indicators in different hospitals across the country. METHODS: We established a clinical cancer registry in 12 provinces of Iran. We defined the organizational structure, developed minimal data sets and data dictionaries, verified data sources and registration processes, and developed the necessary registry software. During this registry, we studied the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with cancer who were admitted from 2014 onwards. RESULTS: We registered 13086 BC cases (7874 eligible cases) between 1.1.2014 and 1.1.2022. Core needle biopsy from the tumor (61.25%) and diagnostic mammography (68.78%) were the two most commonly used diagnostic methods. Stage distribution was 2.03% carcinoma in situ, 12% stage I, 44.65% stage II, 21.32% stage III, and 4.61% stage IV; stage information was missing in 1532 patients (19.46%). Surgery (95.01%) and chemotherapy (79.65%) were the most common treatments for all patients. CONCLUSION: The information provided by this registry can be used to evaluate and improve the quality of care for BC patients. It will be scaled up to the national level as an important resource for measuring quality of care and conducting clinical cancer research in Iran.

Lung cancer risk in relation to jobs held in a nationwide case-control study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Globally, lung cancer is the most frequent occupational cancer, but the risk associated with the occupations or occupational environment in Iran is not clear. We aimed to assess occupations with the risk of lung cancer. METHODS: We used the IROPICAN nationwide case-control study data including 658 incident lung cancer cases and 3477 controls. We assessed the risk of lung cancer in relation to ever working in major groups of International Standard Classification of Occupations, high-risk occupations for lung cancer and duration of employment and lung cancer subtype among construction workers and farmers while controlling for cigarette smoking and opium consumption. We used unconditional regression logistic models to estimate ORs for the association between increased lung cancer risk and occupations. RESULTS: We observed elevated ORs for lung cancer in male construction workers (OR=1.4; 95% CI: 1.0 to 1.8), petroleum industry workers (OR=3.2; 95% CI: 1.1 to 9.8), female farmers (OR=2.6; 95% CI: 1.3 to 5.3) and female bakers (OR=5.5; 95% CI: 1.0 to 29.8). A positive trend by the duration of employment was observed for male construction workers (p< 0.001). Increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma was observed in male construction workers (OR=1.9; 95% CI: 1.2 to 3.0) and female farmers (OR=4.3; 95% CI: 1.1 to 17.2), who also experienced an increased risk of adenocarcinoma (OR=3.8; 95% CI: 1.4 to 9.9). DISCUSSION: Although we observed associations between some occupations and lung cancer consistent with the literature, further studies with larger samples focusing on exposures are needed to better understand the occupational lung cancer burden in Iran.

Using machine learning in prediction of ICU admission, mortality, and length of stay in the early stage of admission of COVID-19 patients.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has affected health systems across the world. Especially, Intensive Care Units (ICUs) have played a pivotal role in the treatment of critically-ill patients. At the same time however, the increasing number of admissions due to the vast prevalence of the virus have caused several problems for ICU wards such as overburdening of staff and shortages of medical resources. These issues might have affected the quality of healthcare services provided directly impacting a patient's survival. The objective of this research is to leverage Machine Learning (ML) on hospital data in order to support hospital managers and practitioners with the treatment of COVID-19 patients. This is accomplished by providing more detailed inference about a patient's likelihood of ICU admission, mortality and in case of hospitalization the length of stay (LOS). In this pursuit, the outcome variables are in three separate models predicted by five different ML algorithms: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), bagged-CART (b-CART), and LogitBoost (LB). With the exception of KNN, the studied models show good predictive capabilities when evaluating relevant accuracy scores, such as area under the curve. By implementing an ensemble stacking approach (either a Neural Net or a General Linear Model) on top of the aforementioned ML algorithms the performance is further boosted. Ultimately, for the prediction of admission to the ICU, the ensemble stacking via a Neural Net achieved the best result with an accuracy of over 95%. For mortality at the ICU, the vanilla XGB performed slightly better (1% difference with the meta-model). To predict large length of stays both ensemble stacking approaches yield comparable results. Besides it direct implications for managing COVID-19 patients, the approach presented serves as an example how data can be employed in future pandemics or crises.

Human Papillomavirus and Risk of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Iran.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes a subset of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Knowledge of determinants of α-, ß-, and γ-HPVs types in the oral cavity is required for a better understanding of HNSCC development. Oral rinse samples of 498 HNSCC cases and 242 controls from the IROPICAN study-a large multicenter case-control study in Iran-were screened for 21 α-HPV, 46 ß-HPVs, and 52 γ-HPVs using bead-based HPV genotyping assays. α-HPVs were detected only in 1.2% of the patients and 2.9% of the controls from which HPV16 was the most prevalent type among participants. ß-HPVs were detected in 43.8% of the patients and 38.6% of the controls where the lip and oral cavity (45.5%) had the highest positivity. Values for γ-HPV prevalence in patients and controls were 26.1% and 24.7%, respectively. The highest percentage of γ-HPV positivity was found in the larynx (30.4%). Concerning the ß genus, HPV23 and HPV38 were the most prevalent types among the patients and controls, respectively. For the γ genus, SD2 in cases and HPV134 in controls were the most prevalent types. Overall, detection of α-HPVs (aOR, 0.40; 95% CI = 0.1 to 1.2; P = 0.11), ß-HPVs (aOR, 1.9; 95% CI = 0.9 to 1.6; P = 0.29), and γ-HPVs infections (aOR, 1.04; 95% CI = 0.7 to 1.5; P = 0.83) was not associated with the HNSCC development. Our data did not suggest an HPV-related etiology for HNSCC pathogenesis. Nonetheless, this study provides novel insights into the diversity of ß-, and γ-HPVs in different HNSCC anatomical subsites. IMPORTANCE Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for a subset of neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), but knowledge of the prevalence of and risk factors for oral HPV infection, especially cutaneous types in Iran, remains unknown. In a large retrospective study, the authors used a sensitive assay for the detection of α-, ß-, and γ-HPVs in oral rinse samples of HNSCC and matched controls. They find that the α-HPV contribution to HNSCC in Iran is lower than global prevalence. High-risk α-HPVs or cutaneous ß- and γ-HPVs were not associated with the HNSCC development. Besides, this study provides novel insights into the diversity of ß- and γ-HPVs in different HNSCC anatomical subsites.

Consumption of Yoghurt and Other Dairy Products and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in Iran: The IROPICAN Study.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of an inverse association between yoghurt intake and risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed at investigating the association between the intake of yoghurt and other dairy foods consumed in Iran and CRC risk. METHODS: Our analysis included 4070 subjects within the IROPICAN (Iran Study of Opium and Cancer) study. Detailed information was collected by the use of validated questionnaires. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between the intake of total dairy products, and, separately, of yoghurt, milk, cheese, kashk, dough, cream, ice cream, and other milk products, and CRC using unconditional logistic regression analyses. The intake was categorized in tertiles. RESULTS: Overall, we analyzed 865 cases and 3205 controls. Total dairy products intake was not associated with CRC. The OR for one tertile increase (OR_T) in yoghurt intake was 0.97 (95% CI 0.87-1.08) for CRC and 0.66 (95% CI 0.52-0.84) for proximal colon cancer. Cream intake was associated with CRC (OR_T3 = 1.33, 95% CI 1.08-1.64), colon (OR_T3 = 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.81), and proximal cancer (OR_T3 = 1.29, 95% CI 1.04-1.61). The OR of distal colon cancer for ice cream intake was 0.59 (95% CI 0.43-0.82). Other dairy products were not associated with CRC risk.

Association between platelet, white blood cell count, platelet to white blood cell ratio and sarcopenia in community-dwelling older adults: focus on Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is a progressive age-related skeletal muscle disorder associated with harmful impacts on health. The present study aimed to investigate the relation between sarcopenia, platelet (PLT), white blood cell (WBC), and PLT to WBC ratio (PWR) due to the importance of early sarcopenia diagnosis. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted based on the second stage of the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) Program. Sarcopenia was defined based on the revised edition of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP2) in accordance with the Iranian cut-off point. Univariate and adjusted multivariate logistic regression and linear regression were used to evaluate the associations. RESULTS: The prevalence of sarcopenia among participants was 35.73%. PLT count and PWR were statistically higher in severe sarcopenic participants, while no differences were seen in WBC. In crude analysis, sarcopenia was not associated with quartiles of PLT, WBC, and PWR, while after adjusting for age, marital status, and sex, the association was seen in the fourth quartile of PLT and PWR [OR (95%CI) = 1.40 (1.08 to 1.81), p-value = 0.009 for PLT; OR (95%CI) =1.55 (1.20 to 2.00), p-value =0.001 for PWR]. This association remained significant in the fully adjusted model [OR (95%CI) =1.82 (1.20 to 2.78), p-value =0.005 for PLT; OR (95%CI) =1.57 (1.03 to 2.40), p-value =0.035 for PWR]. Among sarcopenia parameters, PLT count was more likely to be associated with handgrip strength and muscle mass. After stratifying the participants by gender, sarcopenia parameters were no longer statistically significant in men. CONCLUSION: This study showed that PLT and PWR were associated with sarcopenia after considering confounding factors, while this association was not seen in WBC. Moreover, results showed that gender had an important impact on sarcopenia parameters.